The good news of this past week is that coronavirus vaccines soon will be deployed in the United States. People have already started getting the shots in the United Kingdom, where the second person to receive it was a guy named William Shakespeare. Given the many dramatic tragedies of 2020, that seems appropriate.
In any case, here are a few thoughts about a development that has the potential to make a gigantic difference in the world’s efforts to control the virus:
• The Trump administration and the drug companies who developed the vaccine deserve credit for literally achieving the impossible. The outgoing president got a lot of things wrong in dealing with the pandemic, but this is one big thing he did right. No one believed that a vaccine could be ready for commercial use in such a short time. It typically takes at least five years to develop and begin distributing a product like this.
The fact that a vaccine is ready nine months after it became clear that a virus would turn the world upside down is a testament to what can be done when a serious problem gets the full attention of science. All the research of 2020 is bound to lead to other medical improvements in the coming years.
• An obvious sidebar to this news is, Exactly how effective will the vaccines be? And will there be a noticeable percentage of recipients whose bodies react poorly to them?
News reports on the three main vaccines, which are being produced by Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca and their partners, say trials indicate that 70% to 90% of people who have gotten the shots are protected from infection. Those figures, if they hold true for wider distribution, are impressive when you consider that the flu vaccine is only about 50% effective. As research continues, maybe the COVID-19 vaccines will improve even more.
• But the big question is, How many Americans will agree to get the vaccine? It’s impossible to know for sure, although it seems certain that a significant percentage of the population, which is already dismissive of the virus and preventive measures such as wearing masks, will decline.
This has the potential for great disputes that very well could extend into courtrooms. Will schoolchildren whose parents refuse to allow their kids to receive the coronavirus vaccine be allowed to return to classrooms? Will employers be able to force workers to get the shots in order to keep their job? Or at the other end of the spectrum, will disputes arise from people who want the shots but, because they are considered in low-risk categories, are having to wait at the back of the line?
In the U.S., current plans are to distribute the first doses to medical workers and residents of nursing homes, with the reasoning that these are the people in the gravest danger. But Joe Biden, who will be president in six weeks, said he wants a plan in place to have 100 million Americans — almost a third of the population — vaccinated during his first 100 days in office. That’s an ambitious goal.
All things being equal, the weariness of masks and social distancing should make people open to the vaccine. Even more so, the potentially mortal danger that they could pose to others, including members of their own family, should compel them to trust science and the experts.
