Is the fossil-fuel vehicle on its way to becoming extinct? It might be if a California legislator has his way.
When that state Legislature begins its new session in January, Assemblyman Phil Ting plans to introduce a bill that would ban the sale of new cars powered by internal-combustion engines after 2040. The San Francisco Democrat told the Sacramento Bee that it’s essential to get California drivers into electric cars if the state is going to meet its greenhouse gas reduction targets, since transportation accounts for 14.3 percent of all emissions worldwide.
According to some global warming theorists, humanity must cut greenhouse gas emissions 40 to 70 percent by 2050 or risk a potentially disastrous 5-degree average temperature increase.
California’s proposal follows similar policies announced elsewhere, including the United Kingdom, France, Norway, the Netherlands, India and China.
“I’ve gotten messages from the governor asking, ‘Why haven’t we done something already?’” Mary Nichols, head of the California Air Resources Board, told Bloomberg News. “The governor has certainly indicated an interest in why China can do this and not California.”
There’s a problem, though. None of these policies have any plans or any teeth.
“There is not, in any of these places, policy follow-up to ensure that these goals are met,” Nic Lutsey of the International Council on Clean Transportation told Wired magazine.
“These pronouncements are the governmental equivalent of pledging to drop 100 pounds without considering details like diet or exercise,” Wired’s Aarian Marshall wrote.
Electric cars were just 4.3 percent of vehicles sold worldwide in 2016. One of the goals of these internal-combustion vehicle bans is to boost sales.
Other countries are offering financial incentives to induce residents to buy electric vehicles. These include reduced taxes and fees, including free ferry rides and parking in Norway. There’s also no sales tax on purchases of electric cars in that Scandinavian country.
In China, which is always trying to reduce the number of vehicles on the road, the government auctions license tags to the highest bidder. The owners of electric vehicles don’t have to go through auctions. They also get a purchase subsidy.
I wouldn’t expect, however, to see large numbers of electric vehicles on Greenwood streets anytime soon.
Electric vehicles are expensive. Even Chevrolet’s Volt, which is a an electric-gasoline motor hybrid rather than an all-electric car, starts at $30,000. A Tesla, the top electric vehicle brand, starts at $68,000.
Batteries are electric vehicles’ biggest problem. Their range is limited, usually under 100 miles. There also been fires with some types.
Battery technology is expected to improve in coming years. But if millions of electric vehicles hit the road, the recycling or disposal of millions of batteries will present an environmental problem
There’s little to no infrastructure in place for recharging electric vehicles. Some communities have set up charging stations. And you can always plug in your car at home. But either way, right now it’s a slow process.
Charging a car at home can take four to 12 hours. If you can find a so-called super charger, it can be done in as little as 30 minutes.
There is also concern about the impact of fueling millions of new electric vehicles on the electric grid. How many megawattss of power will be needed to replace the energy potential of gasoline? A Canadian engineer, David Booth, predicts that a charging station that produces the energy produced by a current gas station will require 30 megawatts, enough to power 20,000 homes.
Although natural gas has supplanted coal as the top fuel source for generating electricity in the United States, about 30 percent of electricity in this country is still produced at coal-fired plants. That’s another set of emissions to worry about. So an electric car isn’t really a clean-burning vehicle at present.
Producing electricity with nuclear power is cleaner, but that presents another set of problems, both political and financial.
I believe that in time, the technology and infrastructure will be produced to make electric vehicles a viable alternative to traditional internal combustion vehicles.
Even if the United States bans non-electric vehicles, which seems extremely unlikely, drivers around the world will keep using fossil fuel for the foreseeable future. In fact, you might see a self-driving car before the electric vehicle becomes standard.
• Contact Charles Corder at 581-7241 or ccorder@gwcommonwealth.com.
