JACKSON — While the mutually assured destruction of slimy political attacks ads have scarred both candidates, the special election showdown between Republican interim U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker of Tupelo and Democratic challenger former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove of Madison will ultimately be decided by sophisticated “get-out-the-vote,” or GOTV, efforts.
The Musgrove-Wicker race winner will fill the unexpired term of former Republican U.S. Sen. Trent Lott, who unexpectedly stepped down from office in 2007 to become a lobbyist.
Republican Gov. Haley Barbour appointed Wicker to serve as interim senator until the special election. Because of the special election status, Musgrove’s and Wicker’s party identification will not appear on the ballot. But the respective parties backing the two candidates are currently engaged in a carefully orchestrated effort to make sure “their” voters actually get to the polls and vote next Tuesday.
Polling from both sides gives Wicker a slight lead over Musgrove in these final days, but the lead is slim — about 2 percentage points — which puts the outcome of the election clearly in the margin of polling error.
Less clear from the polling — and perhaps more vital than the popularity measured by most polls — is just which voters will be sufficiently motivated to vote.
While the presidential bid of Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama against GOP nominee John McCain is expected to generate an historic voter turnout in the state, it’s unclear whether that expected increase will be sufficient to lift Musgrove to victory.
Republicans believe that a substantial number of state voters have fears associated with an Obama presidency and concerns about the Democrats gaining a 60-seat majority in the Senate that will stir an equally impressive swell in GOP turnout in reaction.
Specifically, both parties are looking at the expected percentage of black voter turnout statewide. The number crunchers in both parties have been working at forecasting models that assume between 33 and 36 percent black voter turnout.
In that model, Wicker continues to enjoy a slight lead. But in models much in excess of 36 percent, Wicker’s lead dwindles.
Conversely, the respective pollsters have been using models of the percentage of white voter support for Musgrove.
In addition to the state’s strong African-American Democratic Party base, Musgrove will need to substantially increase support among white voters if he is to overcome consistent voting trends in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1982 and hasn’t elected a Democratic senator to an open seat since 1947.
Most pollsters believe Musgrove will likely need to win the support of around one-in-three white voters, or 30 percent, to be competitive in a state in which about 85 percent of white voters supported the re-election bid of President George W. Bush in 2004.
Driven by the relentless Obama campaign, Mississippi is expected to see an unprecedented Get-Out-The-Vote effort put on by the Democrats. The Mississippi Republican playbook on GOTV was developed by Haley Barbour, whose nephew Austin Barbour is running the Wicker campaign.
The elder Barbour’s vaunted “72-hour plan” has been successful in several elections in the state, and the younger Barbour is expected to tweak it somewhat to fit Wicker’s tight race.
But the key strategies are clear.
Musgrove must cherry-pick pockets of increased white conservative voter support of around 6 to 8 percent while hoping for an overall black voter turnout of better than 36 percent.
Wicker must try to match the expected Obama bump for Musgrove with a rural white conservative voter bump of his own.
