JACKSON � The money, the TV ads and most of the media attention will be focused on Gov. Haley Barbour's re-election contest against Democratic challenger John Arthur Eaves Jr.
But in terms of power, influence and the ability to shape and mold the future of state government over the next four years, that race isn't where the action is in the Nov. 6 general election.
The state's lobbyists, special interest groups and the “inside baseball” politicos will be first and foremost watching the lieutenant governor's race, closely followed by the House races that will ultimately determine the outcome of the House speaker's race.
For no matter how forceful or influential the governor is at any given time, the 1890 Mississippi Constitution dictates that the Legislature holds most of the power in state government. As Barbour has proven over the last four years, a constitutionally weak governor who can gain tacit control of at least one of the two legislative chambers can be the strongest of governors.
For Barbour, the success of his possible second term will rely in great measure on the Republicans keeping control of the lieutenant governor's post being vacated by term-limited Republican Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck of Maben.
From that standpoint, the battle for the state's No. 2 post between Democratic nominee Jamie Franks of Mooreville and GOP nominee Phil Bryant of Brandon takes on huge significance.
At this juncture, early polls give Bryant the lead. But Franks is expected to wage a very competitive race.
In the evolving race for speaker of the House, current Speaker Billy McCoy already faces 47 Republican votes against him, according to a statement from House Republicans last week who vowed to vote as a bloc to defeat McCoy.
That leaves McCoy with the task of cobbling together 62 votes from among the 75 Democrats in the House � 36 of whom are in the Black Caucus and believed to be ready to stand by McCoy. That leaves 39 white Democratic votes up for grabs � some loyal “yellow dog” Democrats and some rural white Democrats who often vote with the GOP.
Republicans say they've got 12 Democratic votes committed and that barring upsets in November, the general election should provide them additional numbers.
For McCoy and his House Democratic Leadership Political Action Committee, the race will come down to holding Democratic seats.
Both McCoy and Smith speak with confidence and say they either have the commitments or are getting close.
But it's clear that some eight weeks away from the general election, neither McCoy nor Smith have 62 committed votes in their pockets, and both sides in the House speaker's race are expecting the outcome of contested legislative races to determine who the next speaker will be.
There is a tremendous amount of posturing going on between the McCoy and Smith camps, and both sides are predicting that the stars are in alignment for their respective victories. The truth would appear to be that the margin is now in the single digits.
The lieutenant governor's race will be determined by the popular vote on Nov. 6. But even more intrigue may ensue depending on which party controls the state Senate when the dust settles.
Tuck converted from the Democrats to the GOP after appointing her chairmen and settling into power. Her successor will be playing by different rules.
Make no mistake, partisanship is the guiding force in the struggle for control of the Legislature in the 2007 elections. Clearly, with redistricting tasked to the legislators and their leaders who will be elected in November, both political parties will have all their chips on the table this fall.
