As if life doesn’t present enough problems, here’s another potential one hanging over our heads: Killer asteroids.
A few years back, some scientists were predicting an asteroid named Apophis would hit the Earth on April 13, 2036. At a mere 1,066 feet across, Apophis isn’t large enough to be a planet killer like the one that hit Earth 66 million years ago and wiped out most of the animal and plant life, including the dinosaurs.
However, you wouldn’t want to be anywhere near where Apophis came down. According to astronomer and writer Phil Plait, if Apophis were to hit, “it would release the energy equivalent of 1 billion tons of TNT, at least 20 times more than the largest nuke ever detonated!”
The asteroid was discovered in 2004. Early observations suggested the asteroid would pass close to Earth in 2029. If it went through just the right “keyhole” in space, Apophis would hit Earth in 2036.
In the entertaining, if mindless, science fiction disaster movie “Armageddon” (1998), NASA spots an extinction-event asteroid the size of Texas headed for Earth. NASA has just 18 days to mount a mission to stop the giant rock, which includes training a group of deep-sea oil drillers to work in space and sending them aboard two space shuttles to land on the asteroid and blow it up with nuclear bombs.
“Armageddon” contained much more fiction than science.
In the real world, Earth space agencies would have had seven years to deflect Apophis. However, considering that NASA has no plans or vehicles for such a mission and that the space agency normally needs four years to put together a mission from scratch, there would have been plenty of time to become very nervous.
Scientists say that they wouldn’t have to send a crew of blue-collar workers and nukes into space to take out an asteroid. That likely wouldn’t work outside of a movie.
The proposals for real-word asteroid defense are more subtle. NASA astronaut Edward Lu proposes using what he calls a “gravity tractor” to do the job. The spacecraft would hover above the asteroid and the force of gravity between the objects would push the asteroid into a safer orbit.
Apophis is on a meandering orbit through space, so a small shove would probably be enough to deflect it. But former Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart told National Public Radio that he thinks most asteroids will require a bigger push than a gravity tractor can provide. Schweickart is now chairman of the B612 Foundation, which lobbies for more research into asteroid deflection.
He said a spacecraft needs to land on an asteroid and use its engines to shove the space rock away from Earth. NASA had planned to do a demonstration of this on a real asteroid but budget problems put that project on hold.
Bad idea, Schweickart said. “The Earth is not in any way prepared to defend itself against a devastating natural disaster.”
But not to worry, at least about Apophis. After more observations, scientists announced in 2014 that the asteroid probably won’t hit Earth in 2029 or 2036.
“ ... Apophis is not going to hit us in 2036,” Plait writes. “In fact, the cumulative chance it will hit us in the next century is less than 1 in 100,000.”
That doesn’t mean the danger from space is over. Asteroids large enough to do serious damage routinely pass close to Earth. Some have missed by 40,000 miles or less.
I wouldn’t fret about an asteroid apocalypse. Not that you can do anything about it. I’m sure our top people are working to solve the problem, albeit with a reduced budget.
Besides, there are more imminent dangers right here on Earth. Like how your favorite football team is going to do this season. Or the next election.
• Contact Charles Corder at 581-7241 or ccorder@gwcommonwealth.com.
