JACKSON — Gov. Haley Barbour and the “new” Mississippi Legislature faces a different set of dynamics when they return to the Capitol in January to get down to the business of governing.
To be sure, Barbour led the Republican Party to historic gains in the 2007 elections - with Republicans winning seven of the state's eight top statewide offices. But in the same election, House Democrats held their dominant position by retaining their 75-47 majority over the GOP, and the state Senate actually saw the balance of power shift from the former 27-25 for the Republicans to a new 28-24 Democratic majority.
With 19 entering freshmen in the 122-member chamber, the “new” House will reflect a turnover of some 16 percent. There will be a whopping 14 entering freshmen state senators among the 52-member Senate, bringing turnover in that chamber to 27 percent.
With nearly a third of the “old” Senate gone, Lt. Gov.-elect Phil Bryant will face the task of cobbling together a new Senate leadership team that will require selection of a new Senate president pro tempore and a new set of committee chairmen.
Over in the House, Speaker Billy McCoy has claimed victory, and the House numbers appear to make that claim one that will hold up. But McCoy's race with challenger Rep. Jeff Smith, D-Columbus, appears to still be active and to still be up for grabs.
Regardless of the outcome, the House also faces at least a moderate reshuffling of the leadership deck, even if McCoy survives Smith's challenge.
But one of the key factors in the changing dynamics of the Barbour administration's second-term relationship with this “new” Legislature is that Barbour will be in the first year of his second term and thereby limited from seeking re-election.
During Barbour's first term, lawmakers in both parties feared bucking the governor and his huge campaign war chest because of the damage he could do in putting those funds and his significant political popularity to work against them in the 2007 campaign. But in a second term, legislative Democrats — and particularly those like McCoy and others targeted by the GOP — have already survived Barbour's best political punch and are still standing.
Beginning in 2008, look for the Legislature to reaffirm and reassert the constitutional muscle that branch of government enjoys in the 1890 Mississippi Constitution's “weak governor” system.
Prior to the Barbour administration, Mississippi governors were with rare exceptions unable to exact their will on the Legislature as an institution. Former Gov. William Winter's education reforms and the late former Gov. Kirk Fordice's “rainy day fund” law that limited state spending to 98 percent of revenues with the other 2 percent earmarked for a “rainy day” fund were rare exceptions.
Barbour's political skills remain superior, but the renewed strength of Democrats in the Legislature will make it more difficult for Barbour to dominate the Senate in the manner that he did during his first term. While Barbour was able to rely in great measure on the brute force of numbers in the Senate during his first term, he will be forced to rely more on finesse and compromise to succeed with his legislative agenda in the second term.
With Barbour term-limited, Bryant is the odds-on favorite for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2011. But to reach that goal, Bryant will have to carve out his own niche in leading the Senate and be seen not only as a strong ally to Barbour on conservative issues but as a leader with his own distinct vision for the state.
If McCoy survives in the House, there is little political incentive for him to make nice with House Republicans. That fact alone will make for a contentious and highly charged 2008 legislative session.
