With American and Western aid to Ukraine continually increasing nearly three months after Russia invaded its neighbor, it may seem premature to discuss the potential next war. But if Russia’s actions have shown the world anything, it’s the value of being prepared.
Sen. Roger Wicker is among those in Washington who are looking ahead — at China and its likely target, the island of Taiwan.
The Mississippi Republican and former U.S. Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas recently co-wrote an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal in which they said that economic sanctions rarely deter military aggression, and the United States should consider other ways to convince China it would be foolish to invade Taiwan.
Wicker followed up with a similar sentiment at a recent hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee. The general who is director of the Defense Intelligence Agency spoke to senators about “the growing Chinese threat to Taiwan and how the United States can help deter Chinese aggression,” according to a press release from Wicker’s office.
At the committee meeting, Wicker said, “I believe the United States should prepare Taiwan and send a clear message to Beijing that a military invasion would be too costly. I also believe the primary objective of the United States and its allies with regard to Taiwan should not be so much to repel a Chinese attack but to prevent it from ever occurring.”
The general said he believes China would prefer to take control of Taiwan peacefully, so the U.S. should respond by training the island nation’s military and providing it with effective weapons.
That’s a start, although there is no doubt China would react negatively to an increased American commitment to Taiwan. It is similar to the balance that President Biden has tried to strike with Russia since the Ukraine invasion. The risk is that direct support for Taiwan would only threaten China and perhaps encourage it to invade more quickly.
The DIA director believes Taiwan has learned many lessons from Ukraine’s amazingly sturdy resistance to Russia — the importance of leadership, the value of small-unit military tactics and effective training with the proper defense weapons.
At the end of the day, though, much depends on what China has learned from Russia’s struggles in Ukraine. No one expected Ukraine’s military or citizenry to fight back for as long as they have — repelling an assault on the nation’s capital, for example. And few expected Western nations repeatedly to act in unity against their own short-term financial interests by continuing to punish Russia’s economy for Vladimir Putin’s mindless aggression.
Wicker and others who are talking about China and Taiwan are heading in the right direction. Their concerns about sanctions have merit, but they must know that when it comes to China’s economic base of cheap labor, the West can cause plenty of damage by moving those jobs elsewhere or even bringing them back home.
