This wasn’t supposed to happen.
When the season began in September, nobody gave LSU a chance at competing for the SEC Western Division title. But fast forward two months and here we are — No. 4 LSU hosts No. 1 Alabama tonight in Death Valley. The winner walks, or limps out, of this slugfest in control of the West.
Saying Bama-LSU is huge and could decide the SEC West feels like old news and something we’ve said every year for almost a decade. But every few years, LSU really has to work to make this moment even happen. In 2018, the Tigers were not expected to be in this position.
Before the season, Las Vegas had the Tigers’ over/under win total at seven. They’d won at least eight games every year of this millennium, but that wasn’t the point. Their schedule looked brutal and we weren’t sure about the quarterback situation.
Joe Burrows has proved to be good enough at quarterback, and the Tiger defense has been dominant at times, so here we are — set for another epic LSU-’Bama showdown on the Bayou.
LSU has played a much tougher schedule to this point but is a 14-point underdog. That’s because the eye test tells us Alabama is the best team in college football until further notice.
But more important than home field is how can LSU’s top-notch secondary full of future NFL players slow the Tide’s dynamic passing attack.
LSU has had some big-play problems, but they force incompletions on more than half of the passes thrown against it.
Alabama leads the nation averaging 54.1 points per game despite coasting to the finish in all of its eight victories (Bama has actually been outscored 42-41 in the fourth quarter). In other words, the Crimson Tide could be scoring even more if it tried the whole game.
The Tigers likely will have to slash the Crimson Tide’s scoring output at least in half (27 points) to have even a puncher’s chance to win.
To do that starts with affecting Alabama’s quarterback, runaway Heisman Trophy frontrunner Tua Tagovailoa, with pressure, but he is also a dangerous threat with his feet. If LSU is locked up in man coverage, Tagovailoa can break long runs.
LSU possesses a stingy secondary led by safety Grant Delpit and cornerback Greedy Williams, so it will be strength versus strength.
It should be fun to watch considering Tagovailoa is on pace to set an NCAA single-season record in efficiency, having established a 238.8 rating by completing 107 of 152 passes (70.4 percent) for 2,066 yards with 25 touchdowns. He has yet to throw an interception this year.
LSU has snagged 14 interceptions, which is tied for the national lead, and picked off Georgia’s Jake Fromm twice during a 36-16 win over the Bulldogs on Oct. 13. Delpit has five of LSU’s interceptions.
I think it be a close game for about three quarters before Alabama wins 41-23.
• Contact Bill Burrus at 581-7237 or bburrus@gwcommonwealth.com.
