This is a huge week in the SEC — one that will likely decide the top contender in the SEC West.
Saturday’s matchup between No. 1 Alabama vs. No.19 Ole Miss has all the makings of a season-defining game for both the Tide and Rebels, who can’t afford another slip-up to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.
Alabama has withstood a loss to Ole Miss each of the past two years to make it to the playoffs, but this young Tide team might not be able to do that a third time.
Will Ole Miss make it a three-peat? No team has ever managed to win three consecutive games against a Nick Saban-coached Alabama team, and you can be sure pundits will call the Saban dynasty over (again) if the Rebels are the first do to it.
I say Ole Miss has a pretty good chance although the guys in Vegas disagree as they have ’Bama listed as a 10-point favorite in Oxford.
Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts is a freshman, and Chad Kelly isn’t. Need I say more.
The Crimson Tide has been uncharacteristically sluggish in the run game so far. And based on the way the Rebel defense stuffed FSU star running back Dalvin Cook in the opener, Alabama may have to lean more on Hurts than it would like.
Offensively, Ole Miss has given the Tide fits in recent years with its fast-paced attack. That and mobile quaterbacks are two things Saban’s always-stout defense has struggled against dating back to Johnny Manziel’s 2012 trip to Bryant-Denny Stadium.
A year after the Texas A&M signal caller torched the Tide, Manziel lit up that same defense with 464 passing yards and five scores the next season.
Kelly was magical in last year’s win over the Crimson Tide, throwing for 341 yards and three scores along with a rushing touchdown. He’ll have to do it again since Ole Miss doesn’t have a running back and won’t likely find against this defensive front.
But you can see a metamorphisis with the Tide defense this year.
The front seven is leaner in an effort to combat quarterbacks who test the edges running and passing. Middle linebacker Reuben Foster, a hitting machine, has dropped 15 pounds to get to 225 pounds making it easier for him to play from sideline to sideline. Foster said he’s now more of a Ferrari than an SUV.
The key to offsetting a hurry-up offense is stopping the rhythm before it can start by not allowing much on first down — which keeps fast offenses from getting that motor started.
So am I saying Saban and Alabama will lose three in a row to the same team? Well, yes, I guess I am if I have to make a pick. My best guess, albeit a not-very confident one, is Ole Miss 27, Alabama 24.
I am just not sold on this Tide offense yet so that’s why I fave the home team, but the Rebels have plenty of problems to overcome to pull off the upset: a lack of a running game, a porous offensive line and a thin secondary.
Asked whether he felt the gap had closed between Alabama and the rest of the SEC, Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze said: “They just continue to stockpile depth with 4- and 5-star kids. It’s very difficult to say that you’re ever going to overcome the gap. I think we’ve closed it considerably. Obviously, the proof is on the field.”
OK, coach, we will ask you again late Saturday afternoon.
