Entering the final series of the regular season, the Southeastern Conference Western Division is one big mess.
Arkansas, Alabama, Auburn and Mississippi State are all locked in a tie for first place in the division at 13-14. Right now, all four of those teams are in the SEC Tournament's eight-team field.
Ole Miss is in fifth place in the West at 12-15 and ninth overall. LSU is last in the West at 11-16 and 10th overall.
Arkansas hosts Ole Miss in a series set for today, Friday and Saturday. LSU plays at Mississippi State. Alabama has league-leading South Carolina (20-7), and Auburn has it relatively easy with struggling Tennessee (5-22).
Mathematically, it is impossible for any team in the West to finish any higher than fourth overall in the SEC. MSU could potentially to do that by sweeping LSU and with Georgia being swept by Vanderbilt.
If MSU sweeps LSU, all it has to worry about is Alabama because the four-way tie in the West, right now, goes to Alabama, then MSU, then Auburn and then Arkansas.
In the countless possible scenarios, Ole Miss can still finish first in the West with LSU taking second place.
Both teams would need considerable help for that to play out, but it's possible.
The Bulldogs could win the West, or if they're swept by LSU this weekend, miss the tournament altogether. However, MSU could be swept this weekend and still make the tourney field in certain scenarios.
‘'It's crazy,'' said MSU coach John Cohen. ‘'Every coach in the SEC West is looking at what could happen. The good thing for us is we control our own destiny."
Crunching numbers, sifting through tie-breakers and looking at all the scenarios gives Cohen a headache. He hopes his players aren't dissecting every scenario, but he figures they are.
Cohen, looking for his first trip to Hoover, Ala., in his three seasons at State, is trying to keep things simple.
"What I know is we have to win baseball games," Cohen said, "and that's all that really matters to us."
LSU, on the other hand, must sweep State on the road to have any designs of reaching Hoover, Ala. Even if they get the sweep, there is no guarantee the Tigers will be one of the top eight teams.
MSU and LSU both seem to be playing their best baseball of the season. The Bulldogs have won six of their last seven SEC games, while the Tigers are 7-2 in their last nine SEC games and winners of 10 of 12 overall.
"I just wish we hadn't dug ourselves such a big hole early in the season," LSU coach Paul Mainieri said. "I feel we've reached that point where the kids are really jelling."
Ole Miss and Arkansas meet tonight in Game 1 with both teams having a shot at the West title. Both teams could also miss out on the SEC Tournament.
It's quite confusing, so buckle up for a wild three days of SEC baseball action.
• Contact Bill Burrus at bburrus@gwcommonwealth.com.
