Some people have all the luck.
The names Mark and Matthew come to mind.
I don’t, and that’s why I stay from blind-luck NCAA Tournament pools where your name is drawn out of the hate to correspond with one of the 64 teams left after the play-in games.
I would have probably drawn Northeastern like my friend Steven. That’s like rolling up money and literally flushing it straight down the toilet.
That’s the way it goes for most since there are only a small handful of teams who have any shot to win it all.
And this year, if you didn’t draw Kentucky, you pretty much stand no chance of taking the first-place money. The Wildcats are the closest thing to a “lock” we’ve seen maybe ever.
The Las Vegas Superbook installed Kentucky as even favorites to cut down the nets in Indianapolis. In layman’s terms: Vegas is taking Kentucky and giving you the field, an insane declaration for a 68-team tournament.
Teams get even odds when they’re playing one game against a similar opponent. You just don’t see even odds for a tournament in which a team has to play six games against increasingly difficult opponents.
It would be pretty good to have the Wildcats by your name with a chance to win some big money.
My aforementioned friends, Mark and Matthew, know that feeling well.
The teams with the next-best odds are Wisconsin and Duke (6/1), Villanova (8/1), Arizona (15/1), Virginia (15/1) and Gonzaga (18/1).
In a six-round, single-elimination event, 1/1 is nothing short of astounding.
Sure, Kentucky’s 34-0 record entering the Big Dance and its bevy of future NBA Draft picks had something to do with the surprising odds. But the betting public likes to put its money on brand names, and that’s built into the line.
After today, the NCAA Tournament field will be trimmed to 16. The Wildcats punched their ticket to the Sweet 16 Saturday with a 64-51 win over Cincinnati.
I would still take the field straight up against Kentucky, and that’s good news for my buddies who probably think I am trying to jinx them by promoting the Wildcats as a lock.
It’s good news because my printed picks often come back to haunt me.
So, with sort of a straight-face, I am giving you the two teams that can derail undefeated Kentucky — Arizona and Wisconsin. The good news for the Wildcats is that both Arizona and Wisconsin are in the same region, the West.
The Badgers are more athletic than some may realize, and they hang tough in the paint with the Wildcats. Wisconsin has four players who all convert more than 37 percent of their three-point attempts.
That combined with an absurdly low turnover rate — just 12 percent of their possessions, best in the nation — and a 35-second shot clock makes the Badgers a true threat to Kentucky’s national title run.
Arizona has the post defense to effectively counter UK’s interior offense.
Another thing I like is Arizona’s ferocity on the defensive glass as it leads the nation in defensive rebounding rate, allowing opponents to only grab well under a quarter of their misses.
With that said, there’s no one out there who wouldn’t trade teams with Mark and Matthew.
