There are a lot of ways to analyze Ole Miss’ matchup with Alabama.
If you believe in ESPN’s analytics, the No. 15 Rebels will upset the No.-2 ranked Crimson Tide Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
Yep, that’s right.
Forget the revenge factor. (Nick Saban has been great in payback games at Alabama, going 9-1 in the next matchup after losing to a team.)
Don’t worry about home-field advantage either. (’Bama is 47-3 at home under Saban since 2008.)
Ole Miss has got this, according to ESPN's Football Power Index, which gives the Rebels a 56 percent chance to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
Here is ESPN’s explanation: “Heading into the season, FPI expected Ole Miss to be one of the top defenses in the nation but had questions about its offense. After scoring 70-plus points in back-to-back games and posting the highest offensive efficiency in the FBS, Ole Miss now has a top-10 offense to go with its top defense.”
ESPN says its metrics are opponent-adjusted, so FPI accounts for Ole Miss’' weak schedule.
What does all that really mean? Heck, I don’t really know.
But I do know the boys in Las Vegas aren’t buying it. Alabama, which is 25-1 at home all-time against Ole Miss, is a seven-point favorite. The Tide has been darn near unbeatable at home under Saban, who also has never lost a league home opener (8-0).
Metrics might be on the Rebels’ side against Alabama, but history sure isn’t. Ole Miss is a woeful 1-35-1 in games against the Tide played in the state of Alabama.
But this isn’t just any Ole Miss team either.
The Rebels are loaded on both sides of the ball. They have the talent to win this game and maybe even the SEC.
Ole Miss, the only team to beat the Tide in the 2014 regular season, enters the game averaging an incredible 74.5 points per game after blowout wins against UT-Martin and Fresno State to open the season.
It will be interesting to see how first-year Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly holds up on the road against pressure and extreme crowd noise.
In two games against cupcakes, Kelly completed 29 of 40 passes for 557 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. He had just one more incompletion (five) than touchdowns (four) in his first start against UT-Martin.
He’s the reason Ole Miss scored 73-plus points in consecutive games — a feat no other SEC team has ever accomplished.
The big question is can the Rebel offensive line, which apparently will be without star left tackle Laremy Tunsil for a third straight game, give Kelly enough time to blister what might be a vulnerable ’Bama secondary.
I don’t think the Rebels can run the ball against the Tide, so this game will fall on Kelly’s shoulders. I am guessing he likes it that way since he is certainly not short on confidence.
It will be interesting to see if that’s still the case come about midnight Saturday.
According to ESPN Stats & Information, Ole Miss would be the first team since Notre Dame (1973 and 1974) to defeat Alabama teams ranked third or better in consecutive seasons.
I am guessing it will be a historic day for Ole Miss and one Tide fans thought they would never see under Saban’s rule: Ole Miss 27, Alabama 20.
Here’s why: Ole Miss beat Alabama last year. I think Ole Miss is a good bit better this season, while Alabama may have slipped a little bit.
Oh, and as some will tell you, I just love The School Up North!
If I am right and Ole Miss defies history with a win that winds up keeping Alabama out of the College Football Playoff — the Rebels wind up on probation by the time the Tunsil deal is done.
