It’s going to happen today. There is no way around it.
It always does on the first day of the NCAA Tournament. That’s why we call it March Madness.
Double-digit seeds are going to shock opponents in the first round and destroy brackets. You can count on that.
One year ago, we were treated to one of the best opening weekends of the NCAA Tournament ever, filled with buzzer-beaters and upset wins by two No. 12 seeds, plus one each from a 13, 14 and even a 15, as Middle Tennessee shocked Michigan State.
Not every year is as upset-rich as 2016, but there are still bound to be some historic moments in the coming days.
Today and Friday are two of the best days in sports, because the first round of the tournament offers the chance for little-known schools, players and coaches to author stunning defeats of more powerful opponents, the types of moments that are some of the most memorable in college basketball history.
These are the most recent upsets that stick out to me: No. 15 Hampton 58, No. 2 Iowa State 57, 2001; No. 2. Florida Gulf Coast 78, No. 15 Georgetown 68, 2013; and No. 3. Lehigh 75, No. 14 Duke 70, 2012.
A trendy out-of-nowhere Elite Eight pick this year is SMU, a No. 6 seed.
No. 11 Southern California is my sleeper pick. The Trojans’ home victory against UCLA was an impressive accomplishment. And they looked good in the second half Wednesday in their First Four game, rallying from 17 down to beat Providence 75-71.
Southern Cal moves on to play SMU Friday. It will be the second meeting of the season for the teams after USC prevailed 78-73 on Nov. 25.
Comparing info from the experts, here are a few possible upsets to watch out for:
nNo. 12 UNC Wilmington over No. 5 Virginia. Wilmington has a terrific offense with four double-figure scorers led by guard C.J. Bryce and 3-point rifleman Denzel Ingram, who is top-20 in the nation in 3-pointers made. They’ve never seen anything like the Virginia defense, but they’re good enough to make this happen.
My opinion is Virginia is an awful matchup for UNC-Wilmington, but if the Hawks can manage to take that game, I like them against Florida in the round of 32.
nNo. 13 Winthrop over No. 4 Butler. For the Bulldogs, this is the highest seed in program history; they used to be the team pulling these kinds of upsets. Butler has as many quality wins as just about anyone, but they’ve also been vulnerable to lesser teams such as Georgetown, St. John’s and Indiana State. The Eagles won’t like being called a lesser team, but they’ll probably appreciate the idea that someone out here thinks they can win.
nNo. 12 Princeton over No. 5 Notre Dame. This might turn out to be the dullest region. Vandy could beat Northwestern, but 9 seed over 8 seed isn’t an upset. And it’s doubtful the Tigers can take down Notre Dame. But the Irish aren’t physically overpowering and Princeton did win 16 consecutive Ivy League games — and Ivy League teams have won four of their last seven first-round games as bottom-quadrant seeds.
