Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Defense wins championships.
If you believe that, you likely believe New England will defeat Atlanta in Super Bowl LI today.
We’ve seen this before — No. 1 scoring offense (Atlanta) vs. No. 1 scoring defense (New England).
This is the 51st Super Bowl, and the seventh featuring the No. 1 offense against the No. 1 defense. The top defense is 5-1 in previous such matchups.
Also, the past seven times a season’s top “O” was in the Super Bowl, it went 2-5, while the past seven times a top “D” vied for the Lombardi Trophy, it went 5-2.
Even though history is screaming at me to pick the Patriots — who have the best coach ever and the most Super Bowl experience — I just don’t want to listen. I am hard-headed that way.
No reason to think that Bill Belichick and Co. won’t discover the keys to thawing Matty Ice, right?.
But as smart, resourceful and well-coached as the Patriots defense is, that unit hasn’t come against anything like what Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonte Freeman will throw at them.
I can’t help but think the Falcons will have great success against the New England defense. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shannan is a play-calling genius and has played a key role in helping the Falcons amass 540 points during the regular season — the eighth most in NFL history.
The Falcons are averaging 40 points per game in their two playoff contests.
But it’s just about impossible for me to pick against the Patriots in a Super Bowl against a team not named the New York Giants.
I think the Patriots will pound LeGarrette Blount early and often, against a smaller Falcons’ front, control the clock and therefore keeping the ball away from Ryan and that high-octane offense.
Atlanta has given up an average of 104.0 yards per game (17th in the league) and 4.6 yards per attempt (29th in the league). Their front seven may not be able to handle the physicality of the Patriots offensive line.
If I think the Brady-Belichick combo is the best of all time (see column on page 1B) and I do, then I have to go with the Patriots even though I won’t be shocked at all if Atlanta gets its first Super Bowl.
Patriots 27, Falcons 24
