So is this the year that the College Football Playoff semifinals finally live up to the hype?
The CFP format is a vast improvement over any previous championship systems that the sport has offered. But in its first three years of existence, the CFP hasn’t had semifinal matchups that have been particularly interesting. The average margin of victory has been 25.3 points, and only one game has been decided by fewer than 17. The two most memorable semifinal moments to date: Ohio State trucking Alabama in the 2015 Sugar Bowl and Jameis Winston forgetting how, to play football in the 2015 Rose Bowl.
That trend could change come Monday. The two semifinal games are fascinating in their own ways: The Rose Bowl between Oklahoma and Georgia (a strange combination of teams in a strange location) should make for a fascinating fight based on the teams’ contrasting styles. Plus it has Baker Mayfield, who even made games at Kansas must-see television this year.
And the Sugar Bowl between Alabama and Clemson features the two best programs in the nation. The winner will have sealed the deciding victory in the trilogy that may define this era of college football.
That’s if the victor gets past the Rose Bowl winner, Oklahoma or Georgia.
The Rose Bowl is an intriguing matchup for sure — the perfect examples of what great teams from different parts of the country look like. Now we get to see them go head-to-head for the first time in history.
The Sooners are the perfect distillation of the pass-first, points-heavy Big 12. They have the best passing offense in football history, averaging 12 yards per attempt.
The all-time FBS leaderboard for yards per passing attempt in a season now reads Mayfield (2017), Michael Vick (1999), Baker Mayfield (2016). The Sooners scored at least 40 points in nine of 13 games this fall and never scored fewer than 29.
The Sooners’ defense? Well, it exists. Oklahoma is tied for 70th out of the 130 teams in college football in yards per play allowed.
This is how you win the Big 12: break scoreboards and hope your defense gets a stop somewhere along the way.
The Bulldogs are the perfect distillation of the run-first, shut-opponents-down SEC. It’s hard to decide which of their three running backs — Nick Chubb, Sony Michel or D’Andre Swif — poses the greatest threat. The Bulldogs are sixth nationally in total rushing yardage and 10th in yards per attempt.
The Dawgs’ passing game?
Well, it exists, but true freshman quarterback Jake Fromm has thrown for 200 yards in a game only three times. Meanwhile, their defense is impregnable: They’re tied for third in the country in points allowed (13.2 per game), second in opposing yards per passing attempt (5.6), and second in yards allowed per game (158.3). Georgia has only given up more than 20 points in two games in 2017.
Neither team has played anybody remotely like the other so predicting this one is tough. I am leaning toward OU even tough the Bulldogs are a 3-point favorite.
Alabama is picked to win by three favored by the boys in Las Vegas, and that’s understandable when you consider the public loves to bet the Tide.
I like Clemson, and here’s why.
The Tigers have the best defensive line in the playoffs. The scary thing about that group is not just the size, athleticism and star power — it's the depth and level of play that can be maintained with fresh bodies getting rotated throughout a game.
I also give the Tigers a slight edge at quarterback with Kelly Bryant even tough Alabama’s Jalen Hurts has more big game experience.
