This is supposed to be a cake walk for Mississippi State, right?
The Ole Miss defense can’t stop a nose bleed and the offense keeps miss-firing in the red zone. The Rebels have lost four straight while the No. 22 Bulldogs have won three of their last four and seem to be peaking at the right time.
MSU is a 10-point favorite for Thursday night’s Battle of the Golden Egg, and Ole Miss is practically having to give tickets away to get folks in the stands.
Rebel fans and players are fatigued with what has become a disappointing season, so all signs point to a Bulldog blowout. But this is the Egg Bowl, where anything can, and usually does, happen.
Here’s one thing I know: Ole Miss coach Matt Luke will have his team more than fired up for a rivalry that he is born and bred into. He played in it and has coached in it — shocking many last year as interim coach as the much-maligned defense played inspired and his offense made big plays in a 31-28 upset of No. 14 MSU.
MSU has allowed just 12 touchdowns, the fewest touchdowns allowed in FBS football so far. Over half of those scores were in just the Kentucky and Alabama games. But trust me, that defense will be challenged against a talented offense that I expect to throw everything but the kitchen sink at the Dogs.
Another thing to remember is State hasn’t won away from home since the second weekend of the season, at Kansas State.
Here’s is State’s formula for avoiding another upset:
nContinue to find success in the run game and play with offensive consistency. Ole Miss has the worst rushing defense in the SEC. Mississippi State has the second-best rushing offense behind only Georgia. The Dogs must exploit that matchup.
The difference in coach Joe Moorhead’s offense in its wins and in its losses has been night and day. In State’s seven wins, the team averages 7.7 yards per play and 510.3 yards per game. In its four losses, those numbers drop to 3.6 and 208, respectively.
nControl the line of scrimmage and therefore the time of possession to keep that explosive Rebel offense off the field.
nTake care of the football — something it has done pretty good to this point in the season with only two fumbles lost in eleven games. Yes, the Ole Miss defense is porus (No. 113 scoring defense and No. 123 total defense), but the unit is aggressive and has 15 forced turnovers.
nDefensively, the State secondary has to keep everything in front of them and tackle well in space against some big, fast receivers and limit big plays. Ole Miss leads the conference in plays from scrimmage over 20 yards. The Rebels have 83 of them, 62 of which have come through the air.
The first thing Ole Miss has to do is be able to run the ball against a nasty Dog defense to keep a relentless pass rush honest.
Here are a few more:
nFix the red zone woes. Ole Miss scored on six of seven red zone trips against Vanderbilt last weekend. The problem isn’t that conversion rate — it’s the number of those red zone trips that end in field goals. They kicked five field goals and scored only one touchdown from the red zone.
nThe Rebels also need its big, talented receivers to win a lot of 50-50 deep balls. Ole Miss killed the MSU secondary last season as Jordan Ta’amu had touchdown passes of 77 yards to A.J. Brown and 63 yards to D.K. Metcalf.
nDefensively, the Rebels have to absolutely sell out to stop the run and make quarterback Nick Fitzgerald beat them with his arm. The game marks the one-year anniversary of his nightmarish ankle injury so the obvious question is how well he will handle things from an emotional standpoint.
While things have certainly not gone like Ole Miss had hoped, it’s also been somewhat of a disappointing season in Starkville in Moorhead’s first year. His offense looked anemic and scared in a loss to LSU and don’t forget about — not that State fans can — the ugly offensive outings against Florida and Kentucky (one touchdown in eight quarters).
But the Bulldogs can salvage a decent season at 8-4 if they take care of business on Thanksgiving night. I think they will unless the game turns into a track meet, which certainly favors the Rebels.
My guess: MSU 41-31.
nContact Bill Burrus at 581-7237 or bburrus@gwcommonwealth.com.
