Mighty Alabama is a near lock to win it all again this year, right?
Slow your roll on that one.
The Crimson Tide isn’t without its flaws, albeit ones you may struggle to find.
After all, Alabama has fallen behind — OK, by only one score — in each of its past three games against Florida (7-0), Auburn (3-0) and even Chattanooga (3-0). But none of those teams really mounted much of a challenge after that.
‘Bama is loaded with talent. It is unbeaten this year but isn’t unbeatable.
When Alabama rolls into its third consecutive College Football Playoff on New Year’s Eve, arguably one of its biggest advantages won’t have anything to do with its on-field performance.
A lot of it simply will come down to the experience of having played in it before.
Of the four teams in this season’s College Football Playoff, which also includes Clemson, Ohio State and Washington, the Crimson Tide will be the only one to have played in all three to date. Alabama has both won and lost in the setting.
In 2014, Alabama was the No. 1 seed when it lost 42-35 in the semifinal against eventual champion Ohio State. Last season, the Tide beat Michigan State 38-0 in a semifinal, then edged Clemson 45-40 to win the national championship.
From the 2014 loss to Ohio State, Alabama has 19 players on its active roster who saw time in that contest, including four who started, on top of numerous others who were on the team at the time. One is junior left tackle Cam Robinson, who started as a true freshman in ‘14.
CFP experience falls heavily in favor of the Tide, and that will be a huge difference in the Peach Bowl against Washington.
The only way the Huskies can pull the upset is with the perfect game and hope Alabama is already looking forward to hanging out on the beaches of Tampa ahead of the championship game.
It’s a poor matchup for the Huskies with their relatively inexperienced offensive line and stationary quarterback. That’s a recipe for disaster against this ferocious Tide defense.
In the other semifinal matchup, it appears to be strength-against-strength with Clemson’s offense against Ohio State’s defense.
The Tigers have lit up scoreboards all year and come into the playoff averaging more than 40 points per game. But the Buckeyes have one of the stingiest defenses in the country, surrendering a hair over two touchdowns a game — a mark that ranks third nationally.
I like Clemson to win this one — if it can eliminate the turnovers.
Clemson’s offense has been one of the most turnover-prone in the country, and it can’t continue to be careless and expect to move past Ohio State in the playoff.
The Tigers have averaged nearly two turnovers a game, which ranks No. 109th nationally. Ohio State’s defense, meanwhile, has averaged more than two takeaways per game, which ranks 10th in the country.
With the Buckeyes’ opportunistic defense that has forced 25 turnovers this year, Clemson has to put a premium on taking care of the ball.
I think Clemson has the best chance of the two to knock off Alabama.
To beat a great defense — Alabama is No. 1 in total defense, scoring defense and run defense — you need your great quarterback to play great. And it helps if he is great at multiple things, running and passing.
Clemson showed last year Alabama’s defense could be beat, though it takes a special effort by a special player. Quarterback Deshaun Watson accounted for 478 yards and four touchdowns in last year’s title game.
nContact Bill Burrus at 581-7237 or bburrus@gwcommonwealth.com.
