JACKSON - Depending on one's political loyalties, the new Mississippi political soap opera goes like this:
Eaves leaves! Musgrove gets a primary reprieve! Does Barbour grieve? What does Tyner believe?
And what about Sherman Lee Dillon, Gilbert Fountain, Shawn O'Hara, Elder M. McClendon, Katie Perrone and Catherine Starr - the six other Mississippi minor party gubernatorial candidates. What do they perceive?
Rhyme or reason? In terms of what John Arthur Eaves Jr. said about dropping out of the 2003 Democratic gubernatorial primary race with incumbent Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, it's as plain as his press release statement:
"During the last month of the campaign, as I have traveled across the state, I have noticed that my absence has taken a toll on my children. I have noticed changes in their school work, their relationships with each other, and their emotional well being. These three young boys should not have to pay such a price."
If Eaves says he's bailing out of the race because of his children, that's good enough for this writer - and that's exactly what he said late Tuesday.
Eaves gave huge political donations to Musgrove in the governor's successful 1999 campaign, so Eaves' motives for getting into the race in the first place were indeed questionable. His motives for getting out should not be.
Impact? Normally, when a primary challenger bails out, he endorses the candidate of his party against those of competing parties. Eaves didn't do that.
"We now have two main candidates for governor," Eaves said. "They are men with different types of success in their professional lives. I hope that they can work to bring that success to our people here in Mississippi who need help so badly. I will not be endorsing either candidate today. I will listen to the debate over the next several months along with the rest of Mississippi, and I will support the candidate that best demonstrates his desire to help the hard-working people of Mississippi."
A cursory look at the impact of Eaves' departure from the race would suggest that Musgrove benefits mightily from not facing a well-financed, fire-in-the-belly primary opponent who just happened to be a trial lawyer angry with Musgrove over the tort reform issue.
In terms of campaign spending and the length and intensity of the campaign, Musgrove indeed gets a political reprieve from Eaves' departure. And Republican front-runner Haley Barbour loses the benefit of having Eaves wail on Musgrove in a contentious Democratic primary.
Barbour faces in trial lawyer Mitch Tyner a GOP primary opponent with the financing necessary to bloody him politically if Tyner chooses. Eaves' departure makes Tyner more of a factor in the overall campaign. Another reprieve? Maybe.
But prior to Eaves' latest bombshell, no political observers truly expected Eaves or Tyner to be left standing for the November showdown. The preliminary card may have been adjusted, but the main event is still Musgrove and Barbour for all the cookies in November.
It might have actually proved a disadvantage to Barbour for Eaves to have stayed in the race. A few months of a fellow Democrat beating up on Musgrove for being too pro-business in the tort reform fight might not have been that much help to Barbour, who counts tort reform as a major bullet in his gun.
First, there was Musgrove's dalliance with the Delta State job. Then Eaves did the hokey-pokey in the Democratic primary. Then Tyner bailed to the Republican primary with Barbour.
The 2003 governor's race is already more than interesting - and we're not even through hiding the Easter eggs.
