JACKSON - On the south lawn of the state Capitol Building Tuesday, the weather was chilly, cloudy and foreboding, but Haley Reeves Barbour is likely to remember his inauguration as Mississippi's 63rd governor as a cold day with hot prospects.
The clouds were appropriate. As Gov. Barbour takes the reins of state government from former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, the state is mired in a serious fiscal crisis.
That crisis is particularly threatening to the state's public health care system, the state's penal system and public education at all levels.
Coupled with the state's money problems is the political reality that Barbour, Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck, House Speaker Billy McCoy and the vast majority of lawmakers in both houses ran for election or re-election on the strength of a no-new-taxes platform.
Barbour inherits "built-in" expenses from the previous administration that includes the latter phases of the $338 million, six-year phased teacher pay increases, economic development incentives to Nissan, Northrup Grumman and Howard Industries and state bonded indebtedness that approaches 7 percent of the state's general fund.
Something's got to give. There are three scenarios.
First, the state's economy makes a dramatic, almost miraculous recovery and that enables existing taxes to produce sufficient revenue to fund state government at present service levels.
Although there are strong signals that the economy is turning around, it's unlikely that the recovery will be fast enough to provide the revenue relief necessary to solve the state's current fiscal problems on the short term.
Second, Barbour and the Legislature can cobble together budget cuts sufficient to make state agencies operate within existing revenues.
This is the more likely scenario in which both Barbour and the lawmakers engage in some give-and-take over policy. Should Barbour administration officials recommend cuts in Medicaid or CHIP programs, it's likely many in the Legislature will accept the recommendation and then blame Barbour for the political pain the cuts cause.
Third, Barbour and the Legislature retreat from their campaign promises and raise some new taxes.
The prospects of taxes being raised during the 2004 regular session of the Legislature appear to be twofold - slim and none.
But Barbour's inaugural address was relatively short on specifics as are virtually all such addresses - which historically have been speeches meant not to inform but to inspire.
Gov. Barbour made three key points - jobs are job one, crime is high on the list and he repeated his opposition to increasing any taxes.
Beyond those points, Barbour offered generous olive branches to Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck, House Speaker Billy McCoy and to the Legislature. He spoke of the need for all the players in the policy process to work as a team.
He spoke of his faith, his family and his beliefs. He was kind and conciliatory to outgoing Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, who apparently earned such respect during a cooperative and peaceable transition of power.
It was an inaugural in keeping with the times. Mississippi's National Guardsmen - stalwarts of the wars on terror and in Iraq - were front and center throughout the event.
For all the clouds - literally and figuratively - on the horizon on Barbour's big day, his undeniable political skills and his proven work ethic make him a better than even bet to succeed as governor.
As in the campaign, Barbour spoke of Mississippi "doing better." Now the talk's over and the task has begun.
