FOREST - A lot of talk is going on about race and the upcoming Mississippi elections. With Sen. Barbara Blackmon, D-Jackson, on the ballot as the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, all the politicos are betting on a high black voter turnout that could possibly do more good for Gov. Ronnie Musgrove's race than Blackmon's race.
This is very much the case, but understanding how that is requires a look at the four top players in November's elections and one major campaign issue: tort reform.
First, it should be known that all four candidates are going to play the "race card" from now until Nov. 4 when voters head to the poll. Remember former President Clinton speaking of how Southern Republicans used "code words" that spoke to the discriminate nature of voters? Bet that everyone in the governor's and lieutenant governor's race will be using something similar, or an around-about approach to the same end.
That round-about approach is tort reform. It should be noted that some races had surprise endings, and the losers point directly to tort reform as the reason for that. Magnolia Alderman Kelvin Butler knocked off Sen. Robert Johnson, D-Natchez. Johnson said his opposition to tort reform and a local bill that affected McComb voters - near home to Butler - cost him the race.
Ditto on the tort reform issue for Rep. Donny Ryals, D-Grenada, a freshman representative who was knocked off by physician Sidney Bondurant, who was relentless with his pro-tort reform stance.
Tuck will pound on tort reform as well, drawing a stark contrast between herself, who championed tort reform through a special session, and Blackmon, a trial lawyer legislator married to another trial lawyer legislator and definite opponent of tort reform.
Barbour will do the same, though Musgrove can say he has supported some tort reform efforts as well. Two things to consider here: 1) If Blackmon and Musgrove win, Musgrove most likely will not support further tort reform measures because he won't have a lieutenant governor running the Senate who is pressing for it, and 2) tort reform appeals to the voters Barbour is desperate to get out.
Those voters are upper-class businessmen who came out in droves to support Republican Kirk Fordice in his first successful run for governor in 1991. And, yes, those voters are almost overwhelmingly white.
Barbour sits in the unusual position of having to fight two opponents, Musgrove as a candidate and Blackmon as someone who will energize the black vote, a segment of the population who historically has voted Democratic. Therefore, Barbour has wasted no time in hitching his wagon to Tuck's truck. It should be no secret that he needs her more than she needs him, but by how much is yet to be determined.
Tuck has crossover appeal among historically Democratic voters - including black voters - which is why she is in better shape than Barbour. Furthermore, Tuck's bread-and-butter voter is blue-collar Mississippians - yes, mostly white - which is exactly why Tuck preferred to face Blackmon than Jim Roberts, who many in Tuck's camp feared would have eroded her base.
These same blue-collar voters Tuck thrives on do not always vote party lines. They vote with the candidate with whom they most identify, and in the gubernatorial race that could easily be Musgrove more than Barbour.
In short, Musgrove stands to benefit most from the November line-up, especially with Blackmon energizing the black vote.
Tuck is a strong grassroots campaigner whose base voting bloc should belong to her. She can only benefit more from higher voter turnout among business professionals.
Blackmon will carry a strong black base, and she will win hardline Democrats who are mad at Tuck. Her crossover appeal among other white voters, however, will be tested.
Barbour will live and die by the middle-class white vote. Fordice got it out; former GOP gubernatorial candidate Mike Parker did not. It's Barbour's ballgame to play now.
