JACKSON - There's too much grist grinding out of the rumor mill at the state Capitol about powerful House Speaker Tim Ford relinquishing the speakership reins, or maybe getting out of the Legislature entirely, for something not to be going on.
Ford, who now has turned age 50, became speaker 14 years ago as the "reform" candidate, who under new rules was supposed to stay only two terms.
It didn't take long for Ford to knock out the two-term rule. Now he is winding up his fourth term as speaker. So much for reform.
Former longtime Speaker Buddie Newman had been the object of the House reform movement that broke out in 1987, bringing Ford to power in 1988 as the consensus candidate of the reformers.
Newman had been thought to be the ultimate in powerful speakers, the ruthless mastodon holdover of the House's Old Guard. Now, nobody talks about an Old Guard anymore, however, nor does anyone challenge Ford for the speakership.
Meantime the lawyer/lawmaker from the Tupelo area (Baldwyn is home) has methodically built a power base in the House that is wider than the controversial Newman ever had. The big difference is Ford has been far smoother and more likable than his predecessor in operating the levers of power.
Ford has even managed to co-opt the emerging presence of a 29-member House Black Caucus, something Newman never had to contend with. Any problem Ford might have had with the Black Caucus was neutralized early on when Rep. Robert Clark of Ebenezer, who in 1968 had become the first black to sit in the Legislature in 75 years, was elected speaker pro tem under Ford.
The presence of Clark as pro tem also served as Ford's insulation against any coup attempts. Since ouster of Ford would virtually assure Clark's elevation to the speakership, white members much preferred to ride along with Ford rather than risk having an African-American in the speakership.
While recent speculation has centered on whether or not Ford is going to be traded in on a new model, reports have been swirling around the Capitol for some time that Clark, whether voluntarily or not, is going to be replaced by another black as speaker pro tem in 2004.
Ford himself contributed to that speculation by stripping Clark of his seat on the joint legislative budget committee and giving it to Rep. George Flaggs, D-Vicksburg.
Consequently, Flaggs, a 14-year House veteran known to be ambitious, is believed the one bucking for the pro tem job, even to the point of opposing Clark if necessary. Clark tends to dismiss the threat but is ambivalent about whether he wants to stay, anyway.
If Flaggs does nail down the pro tem job and meanwhile doesn't overplay his hand, he very likely would play a key role in deciding which of the contending white members can win in a struggle to become the next speaker. Even before that battle begins, however, it's a given that no House member can be elected speaker unless he can get backing of most - if not all - of the Black Caucus.
Names of a half-dozen aspirants for speaker were being tossed around last week, but all were modestly playing the "Who, me?" game, as though Ford would serve in perpetuity.
Practically every House member I talked to said they would like to see Ford stay on, particularly through 2003, for sake of stability in dealing with some unfinished legislative issues, among them, tort reform.
Of course, it was inevitable that Ford would either tire of the job, or be knocked off just as Newman was in the latter 1980s, so the rumors of his departure are no great surprise. One report already heard around Jackson was that he was thinking about joining a big law firm in the capital city.
Most observers concede that two House 22-year veterans, Rep. Billy McCoy, D-Rienzi, and Rep. Bobby Moody, D-Louisville, will be at the top of the prospective candidate list. Both now head powerful House committees - McCoy, Ways and Means and Moody, Public Health and Welfare - which give them a good following going in.
McCoy, probably Ford's choice to be his successor, though well-liked by many, may be thought to be too combative to take on the role as peacemaker-in-chief of the House. Moody could be regarded as too much of a close-to-the-vest operator to suit the tastes of a House majority.
On the prospect list is bound to be Rep. Steve Holland, D-Plantersville, he with the ever-ready quip to ease tensions in tough debates, but possibly not regarded as a serious enough player to be top dog.
Possibly Rep. Jim Simpson, R-Long Beach, will be pushed as the Gulf Coast/Piney Woods standard-bearer for South Mississippi to end 50 years of North Mississippi's domination of the speakership. He's the son of the late Democratic state Rep. Jim Simpson, a longtime House Old Guard stalwart of the Buddie Newman era.
The younger Simpson, however, lacks the experience of other contenders, and has never exhibited the oratorical talents of his father. Besides, a Republican is not likely to fare well with a heavy Democratic House majority.
When Ford won in 1988, he was a rank dark horse among five entries in the race. He suddenly turned out to be the consensus choice, because, as he likes to say, he was the "least objectionable." But being easy-going and unabrasive obviously helped.
In a contest to elect Ford's successor, some say, a darkhorse may again become the consensus choice. That's why quiet but effective Rep. Joe Warren, D-Mount Olive, a 22-year House veteran, may fill the role this time.
Warren has never occupied the legislative limelight. However, he has long been highly regarded by public education forces, going back to his work as a freshman lawmaker helping to pass the landmark Education Reform Act of 1982. Significantly, Warren is now chairman of the House Education Committee and is pushing to strengthen the 1982 act.
Why should the public get interested in who may become the next speaker of Mississippi's House of Representatives? Is that such a big thing? You bet.
Here's why: Under this state's tripartite system of state government, the legislative branch is far and away the dominant branch. And as oft-said during the 54 years I've watched the system operate, the speaker of the House, who is elected by only one legislative district, is more powerful than the governor who is elected statewide.
