JACKSON - Republican Rep. Chip Pickering has a solid lead over Democratic Rep. Ronnie Shows in Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District, a new poll shows.
The poll of 841 likely voters - commissioned by The Associated Press and Emmerich Newspapers - was conducted Oct. 10-23 by Stennis Institute for Government's Center for Survey Research at Mississippi State University. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, higher for subgroups.
Of those likely voters, 54 percent said they would vote for Pickering and 27 percent said Shows. Of the remainder, 11 percent responded "don't know," 7 percent refused to answer and 1 percent was divided among the four other candidates in the race.
The 3rd District campaign is one of four in the nation where congressmen are pitted against each other as a result of the 10-year redistricting process. Illinois, Pennsylvania and Connecticut are the others.
At one time, political observers said, Mississippi's race was a key contest for the Republicans to maintain control of the House.
Political scientist Larry Sabato, founder of the University of Virginia's Center for Governmental Studies, said that may no longer be the case.
"I have heard about some private polling that indicates the race is over. I've heard indications that the Democrats even realize that's Mount Everest to climb," Sabato said.
The closing week of the campaign has been contentious, with each candidate accusing the other of negative advertising. When Pickering's ads portrayed Shows as a liberal - a negative in this Deep South state - the Democrat retaliated by burning some of Pickering's ads in front of television cameras.
In one of their latest exchanges, Shows argued he was the only candidate to have a home in Mississippi. Pickering said he was living in the Washington, D.C., suburbs so he could stay close to his family.
Shows has been plagued by a lack of money. The latest finance reports show Pickering had $2.3 million in campaign funds to Shows' $1.3 million. Both were expected to spend more before Tuesday's balloting.
In the poll, 31 percent of likely voters said jobs and the economy was the top issue in the campaign followed by Social Security and a prescription drug program for seniors.
Sixty percent of voters picking the economy and jobs as the main issue said they would vote for Pickering. Pickering also led among voters giving high priority to Social Security and the prescription drug program.
Sabato said both candidates are popular with the district's voters, but redistricting gave the edge to Pickering.
"Pickering got the long end of the stick and Shows got the short end," he said.
Pickering is seeking a fourth term, Shows a third.
The district, drawn by federal judges, includes heavily Republican suburban Jackson precincts and excludes more black majority areas in southwest Mississippi where Shows ran previously.
Pickering said the campaign is a referendum on "the values that we in Mississippi share," the party that embraces those values and his ability to work with President Bush, who made an appearance in Jackson for Pickering.
Shows cast the election in populist terms as a contest between "the working people and the corporate elite."
Frank Howell, director of the Center for Survey Research, said Pickering also benefits from a defection of voters who identified themselves as Democrats.
The poll showed a splintered Democratic vote with about 58 percent saying they would vote for Shows and about 16 percent planning for Pickering.
"It appears that this crossover by Democrats to the Republican candidate may be a key aspect for the election if this sample of 3rd District voters accurately reflects what happens election day," said Howell said.
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