VICKSBURG - Soul singer James Brown largely built his fortune on one song. To this day, when he proclaims, "I feel good" on the downbeat, people of all ages, colors and ideological positions go nuts.
Americans like to "feel good."
And that - more than Republican or Democrat - has been the key to every presidential election in this country since the dour Richard Milhous Nixon was sent packing.
Everything else aside, I think it will also be the key to who wins on Nov. 2.
Pollsters are telling us it's going to be close. I don't see that. Based on dispositions, if nothing else, I think George W. will get a second term with more popular votes and certainly more electoral votes than in his first try.
That will especially be true if his themes and his attitude in the closing days and hours of the campaign are upbeat.
History, of course, will determine whether Americans are whistling on their walk to the gallows for voting this way. But that doesn't change reality. The happy dude always wins.
Of course, it might be hard today to think of Jimmy Carter as some kind of Johnny Sunshine, but those old enough can think back to his campaign. Compared to Gerald Ford, who was "entrenched Washington," Carter - known mostly for his ear-to-ear toothy smile - represented renewal.
But when Carter's optimism faded, so did public opinion. It was "morning in America" with Ronald Reagan for Mississippi, which had backed Carter solidly four years earlier. The Gipper's faith in the goodness of this nation and its people was unshakable, and contagious.
And again, four years after that first win, Reagan - despite constant harping from the establishment and the establishment press that he was an out-of-touch "B" movie guy in way over his head - swept to almost the largest electoral victory in U.S. history. How did tall and stern Walter "Fritz" Mondale do? Carry one state out of 50?
Reagan's commercials were heavily criticized for excessive use of American flags waving in the breeze, for soft-focus shots of the nation's natural grandeur. But what did everyone say about Reagan during his multiple funeral services earlier this year: He felt good about America, so we felt good about America. Perhaps, we also worked a little harder to make the real America match the ideal America.
When Reagan could run no more, his VP, George Herbert Walker Bush, stepped up. With due respect, the best thing Bush 41 had going for him was his opponent - Michael Dukakis. Talk about a cold fish.
But when it was time for Bush to run again, a gawky dude from Arkansas agreed to take him on. Bill Clinton's personal politics were as different from Ronald Reagan's as Hank Williams' musical tastes from Mozart's, but Clinton prevailed. The reason was not issues, it was outlook. Clinton's crew knew not to stop thinking about tomorrow - and pledging rosy days for all.
Four years later, it was, again, no contest for Clinton to win a second term. Bob Dole fit pretty much the same personality mold as Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis. Frumpy old men may be geniuses with super public policy proposals. But people won't vote for a grouch.
When Clinton could run no more, his second-in-command almost got the promotion, but didn't. I'm not saying it's the only contrast, but ask yourself this: Who was cheerier on the campaign trail - Bush 43 or Al Sore … excuse me … Al Gore?
None of this is any secret to the behind-the-scenes experts who manage presidential campaigns. If you listen, you will hear John Kerry do something rather interesting at the end of almost every statement. After he goes on about the deficit, about people without health care and abundant failures of this administration he says have created so much misery, he will intone, in his dreary monotone, "But I believe America's brightest days are ahead."
Kerry knows, and it's clear his staff knows, that a happy disposition goes a long way with voters.
Mirth works, and though Bush is no Ronald Reagan he has a lot of the same qualities. He doesn't take himself too seriously, and he exudes confidence.
Maybe it's shortsighted in the final days of what has seemed to be a long, long campaign to write about matters that seem so superficial. Better columnists, no doubt, are still explaining issues positions, engaging in polling in toss-up states and such.
That's important work.
But there's no denying that the voters who swing elections vote intuitively - not on single issues. And there's no denying that people like to feel good, even to the point of regarding it as entitlement of American citizenship.
Given the choice on Nov. 2, Bush will win. The happy guy will get four more years.
