JACKSON - Get ready, Mississippi, for the thundering herd of 300 candidates roaming the state this summer and fall, seeking the 174 seats in the state Legislature.
Unlike any election in modern Mississippi history, because of sharp partisan cleavage driven in legislative ranks by the incumbent Barbour administration, every seat in the Legislature now carries a high premium as to whether it will be occupied by a Democrat or a Republican.
The state GOP has fielded a record 118 candidates for House seats and 49 candidates for Senate posts.
Already facing this year's crop of legislative candidates is at least one hot issue: the tax swap bill - to raise the low cigarette tax and cut by half the 7 percent sales tax on groceries - that was blocked last week in the Senate despite broad public support for the reform measure.
"Vulnerable" is how Walter Howell, legislative advocate for the politically potent AARP, described state senators who voted against the measure. "I truly believe it will be one of the major issues in the campaign," said Howell. That sentiment was also voiced by Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck, who had broken with her fellow Republican, Gov. Haley Barbour, and pushed the tax swap bill.
During Barbour's first three years in office, even with Democrats slightly outnumbering Republicans in the state Senate, he effectively controlled that 52-member body. When three Democratic senators switched parties in the past several months (one at the last minute before the March 1 qualifying deadline), Republicans gained a 27-25 edge.
But that razor-thin margin may be in jeopardy since four incumbent Republican senators are not seeking re-election and their seats will be up for grabs. Also, two of the three GOP senators who switched parties now face strong Democratic opposition in upcoming races.
Doubtless, Barbour will try to make a dent in the solid Democratic majority in the House. Under Speaker Billy McCoy, D-Rienzi, the House has served as the only check against Barbour dominating state government and forced him to soften his stance against public school funding. But Barbour has either blocked in the Senate or vetoed a number of House-passed legislative initiatives.
Veteran legislative battler McCoy has already begun to rally his Democratic forces to ward off any Republican inroads into his legislative branch. When the dust of the 2007 legislative elections clears, McCoy says, "We're confident we will have a good majority here."
McCoy, who plans to again seek the speaker post in 2008, meantime faces a race to win back his own legislative seat in Northeast Mississippi. He has one Democratic primary foe, and would have to face one of three Republican candidates in the November general election.
"Anyone has the right to run," McCoy said, "I don't have a problem with that. We'll go out and meet the people and let them decide." Indications, though, are that the heavily financed campaign waged by business and medical lobbyists to defeat McCoy in 2003 won't happen this time.
Most Mississippians don't realize that largely because of the early March 1 deadline for candidates to qualify for the August party primaries or November general election, 62 of the 174 members of the Legislature will be re-elected without having to make a race. In the Senate, nine Republicans and eight Democrats, and in the House, 24 Democrats and 21 Republicans have drawn no opponents.
Among the legislative races to be particularly watched are the re-election bids of Sens. Shannon Walley of Leakesville and Ralph Doxey of Holly Springs, both of whom had been elected as Democrats but recently switched to the GOP.
Walley has picked up three Democratic opponents for re-election to his seat in Southeast Mississippi, two of whom had previously served in the Legislature. Doxey's bid to keep his seat in Northeast Mississippi has drawn four Democratic opponents.
Interestingly, Democratic Sen. Lynn Posey of Union Church, who had twice been elected as the only white Democratic senator from a majority black district, has decided not to run for re-election. But his seat will stay in the Democratic column, since all four candidates running for the seat are Democrats.
Despite newspaper and public criticism over his stance against the cigarette/grocery tax measure and growing uneasiness over the lack of recovery progress in the Katrina-devastated areas across the Gulf Coast, Barbour is favored to win re-election.
Since Barbour will have a $13 million campaign bankroll at his disposal, that begs the question: how much of his war chest is Barbour going to sprinkle around to help Republican legislative candidates?
That possibility raises an entirely new dynamic in Mississippi politics.
