People over the age of 60, having done their parental duty, may think that America’s declining birth rate is no big deal. But it is.
For starters, low-growth populations tend to create low-growth economies — which is far from ideal. Secondly, if there are fewer people in the future work force, who’s going to supply the payroll withholdings to fund retirement programs such as Social Security and Medicare?
Federal statistics say that in 2020, there were just 55.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. That is a record low number over 111 years of tracking the statistic.
It’s less than half the birth rate at the peak of the baby boom between 1946 and 1964. The 2020 rate declined for each racial and ethnic group, as well as for most age groups.
Last year’s low figure may have been affected by COVID-19, but the virus has only a supporting role in this trend. The birth rate has been declining steadily for at least 30 years.
The main factor clearly is a conscious decision by adults not to have as many children as their parents and grandparents did. More women are working these days, and raising children is getting more expensive. And a divorce rate in the 50% range has got to be an impediment to producing babies.
Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell reports that a Gallup poll has asked people since the 1950s about the ideal number of children a family should have. The average response back then was 3.6 kids. In 2018 it was 2.7.
But Rampell noted that the most recent federal data indicates the average woman will have only 1.6 babies during her lifetime — far below the Gallup poll’s 2.7. This suggests women are having fewer children than they would like.
That 1.6 babies per woman statistic should set off the loudest alarms. The replacement rate to keep a population stable is 2.1 (to account for children that die and adults who do not have children). The difference indicates America may be on the verge of little or no growth.
Other countries with low birth rates have experimented with incentives such as access to child care and even cash bonuses to parents. But they’ve generally been unable to raise birth rates. This implies having fewer children is a lifestyle decision — which may have a significant impact on the country if it continues.
